Plan to be self-reliant for at least three days – a week or more is realistic. This fault has ruptured four times in the past 900 years, each time producing an earthquake of about magnitude 8. Image / GNS Science If not, take the initiative and contact Emergency Management Otago to discuss setting up a local community response group. A rupture along the full length of the fast-slipping Alpine Fault on New Zealand's South Island poses the largest potential seismic threat to the southern and central parts of the country. Our scientific understanding concerning the next large earthquake on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand. How often does the Alpine Fault rupture? We are a young country and learning to adapt to it is a necessity if you and your community are to get through. Get all the information you need to get around Dunedin. The Alpine Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the South Island, scientists say. Look at your home, property or business and develop scenarios about the risk factors. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. The nature and location of the earthquake relative to major population centres suggest that a relatively small number of people will be killed. Any actions you take now to be better prepared will make life easier for you and those who rely on you in the aftermath. The Alpine Fault is called a strike slip or transform fault. Get all the information you need to get around Queenstown. Countless landslides can be expected of all sizes. Large earthquakes are less common along the central Alpine Fault, where the plates are not subducting and the forces are accommodated in different ways. This is not a regular pattern, but enough to suggest there is a high probability of a large earthquake … You will find the SAFER Plan for this response on the Project AF8 website www.projectaf8.co.nz. The map below indicates the range of the earthquake and its shaking intensity (shown in Roman numerals). Aggradation will deposit high sediment volumes in riverbeds lasting for many months. A major problem constraining repair and rebuilding will be the shortage of trades people and materials. The 2020 New Zealand Earthquake (pronounced "TWENTY-TWENTY", also known as the Alpine Fault Quake and the 2020 South Island Quake) is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake that will occur on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island at 11:31 (local) on Thursday, June 18th, 2020. This includes having stored water, food, medical supplies, alternative means of cooking and heating for your household and your pets. Less intense shaking from aftershocks will continue for months. People trapped on roads and tracks, or in accommodation will need to be looked after where they are for days due to road blockages, airport damage, and limited means of transportation. View the latest news and events from Otago Regional Council. Numerous experts say it will be the largest natural disaster of … The Structural Geology of the Alpine Fault . Their location, on either side of the fault, has helped us understand how the Alpine Fault moves in an earthquake. The 1888 North Canterbury earthquake on the Hope Fault west of Hanmer Springs. With an expected magnitude of 8+ this will be considered a "great earthquake" not simply a strong one. You can find the application forms here. Find out more about what rates are used for and how to pay them. https://phys.org/news/2020-12-seismic-zealand-alpine-fault-complex.html We provide bus services in Queenstown and Dunedin to help you get to where you need to go. Preparing for an Alpine Fault earthquake. Large sections of SH6 (Haast Highway) may be out for up to a year. AF8 [Alpine Fault Magnitude 8] is an award-winning programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to build a collective resilience and preparedness to the next Alpine Fault earthquake event. AF8 [Alpine Fault magnitude 8] is a collaborative effort to save lives by planning and preparing a coordinated response across the South Island after a severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault. Rock avalanches falling into the water bodies may cause tsunami in lakes, rivers, and fiords. Satellite based telephone systems will initially be the main means of communication. Civil Defence Emergency Management Groups across the South Island are working together to plan a coordinated response to the next severe Alpine Fault earthquake. 3. Using techniques like these, scientists such as Mark Yetton of the University of Canterbury have found out that major earthquakes happened on the central Alpine Fault in 1100, 1450, 1620 and 1717. The result is a major earthquake along the Alpine fault. The last such earthquake took place in … Two very large earthquakes or a series of large earthquakes are also realistic scenarios. Read more. AF8 aims to increase awareness, enable conversation and build societal preparedness to natural hazard events in the South Island, planning and preparing a coordinated response across the South Island, QuakeKit: Investigating earthquake science and technology, Learning from experience and science: Ten years on, Co-ordinated Planning and Partnerships Pay Off. Analysis of sediments deposited by previous Alpine Fault earthquakes shows that the faultline ruptures on a remarkably regular basis, on average at intervals around 300 years. All communication systems including land and cell-phones may be down in many parts of West Otago. There will be liquefaction and widespread ground damage. Alpine Fault movement. A new model has simulated the disruption a major Alpine Fault earthquake would have on the South Island's transport network - cutting off the West Coast for at least a week. The pressure has been continually building for about 280 years since it was last released by a large earthquake in 1717 AD. Roads will suffer serious damage, some areas will be become isolated immediately. In geology, a fault is a planar fracture or discontinuity in a volume of rock across which there has been significant displacement as a result of rock-mass movements. Depending on the time of year, the large number of seasonal visitors in the Queenstown Lakes District and other parts of Otago will be completely reliant on immediate assistance. 4. The Alpine Fault runs for about 600km up the spine of the South Island, and is one of the world’s major geological features. The lengthy Alpine Fault, which runs along the spine of the Southern Alps, has garnered much attention as it has a clear geographic record of rupturing every 300 years or so. This earthquake will occur with no recognisable warning. You are represented by 12 councillors, elected to govern the Council for the people of Otago. This earthquake is a normal part of New Zealand's evolution. 2. The rupture of another faultline nearby may trigger it, but we will only know this afterwards. While the direct impact on people, families and businesses will vary, it is certain that normal life will be disrupted for everyone in the South Island for an extended period afterwards. Email info@otagocdem.govt.nz or phone 0800 474 082, Transitions from 'deemed permit' to RMA consent, Resource consenting practice and guidance notes, Get involved in the development of ORC’s new Regional Policy Statement, Otago Civil Defence and Emergency Management, www.youtube.com/channel/UC3nsXLqxO5OGcYCmEcS56sA, www.niwa.co.nz/news/lake-tekapo-study-raises-awareness-of-tsunamis-in-nz-lakes. The South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response (SAFER) Framework provides a concept of coordination of response and priority setting across all six South Island Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) Groups and their partner organisations in the first seven days of response. The effects will be worst in West Otago, diminishing eastward. Provision of emergency medical facilities for many major trauma victims and the rescue of trapped people on roads will be severely disrupted for 3-4 weeks. Discover more about the Otago region, the Otago Regional Council and the councillors who represent you. The length of the rupture will be up to 400 km, eg. 3.0 magnitude earthquake 2019-12-10 05:15:01 UTC at 05:15 December 10, 2019 UTC Location: Epicenter at 30.983, -103.621 45.2 km from Pecos (28.2 miles) Overseas rescue and medical assistance will be required. An earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to be one of the most significant disasters that could affect Selwyn district. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. Geologists working on Project AF8 believe that the next severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault is most likely to be a rupture that begins in South Westland and “unzips” northwards and will probably have a magnitude of 8+ on the Richter Scale. As these two plates move against each other enormous pressure builds up which must eventually be released through earth movement. If you would like to know more, there are a series of short presentations by scientists who have been researching the Alpine Fault and the impacts of the next rupture. Presentation given in Christchurch in March 2015. The 1929 Arthur’s Pass earthquake on the Poulter Fault. It is to be expected that medical services and other civil defence emergency services will be overwhelmed and severely inhibited in their rescue efforts by the scale of damage to roads and buildings. Landslide dams with breakout flash flooding are very likely. It is the boundary between the Pacific … Read more. Future Earthquake Predictions. Many rivers and streams will become impassable. Residents of Otago are a key contributor to our funding through rates. magnitude that is much smaller than that expected from the Alpine Fault (Mw=8.2) and that is similar to a potential Hope Fault event (Mw7+). A sudden onset national civil defence emergency of long duration will be called. The Clyde Dam has been built to very high specifications and it is unlikely it would suffer catastrophic damage. AF8 [Alpine Fault Magnitude 8] is an award-winning programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to build a collective resilience and preparedness to the next Alpine Fault earthquake event. The best paleoseismic evidence to date suggests the southern and central sections of the Alpine Fault, at the boundary separating the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates, typically rupture during very large full-section earthquakes of magnitude 7.7 or larger. Water, sewerage, energy, transport, health, and social services are likely to be disrupted for weeks. Our environment is our most important asset. The 2010 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake on the Greendale Fault. The largest city within the highest-risk zone is the nation's capital, Wellington, followed by Hastings then Napier. We work with the community to ensure the sustainable use of our natural resources. Snow on the mountains of the Pacific plate contrasts with the lower land of the Australian plate. It’s the "on-land" boundary of the Pacific and Australian Plates. New evidence of a 19th century earthquake on New Zealand's Alpine fault suggests that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events. The alpine fault may rupture along part of its length, with lower magnitude, and be followed shortly by rupture of the rest. Any ski-fields that were operating at the time of the rupture will pose severe rescue difficulties. A new model has simulated the disruption a major Alpine Fault earthquake would have on the South Island's transport network - cutting off the West Coast for at least a week. The Alpine Fault is sometimes compared with California’s San Andreas Fault, being another fast-moving strike slip fault near a plate boundary. You will find more information about the Alpine Fault, evidence of past earthquakes, and what preparations are being made for a coordinated response across the South Island on the Project AF8 website. Earthquake hits South Island's Alpine Fault; How large? The historical patterns of earthquakes and current research on the Alpine Fault indicate that it is likely to rupture very soon in geological terms. Many other roads will be affected. The future of our beautiful region starts with protecting and caring for it today. The Resource Management Act sets out how we should manage our environment and forms the foundation for the majority of our work. At present, the response spectra from a great scenario earthquake from the Alpine fault can only be estimated from groundmotion - prediction equations (GMPEs) based on local and overseas earthquake records. Numerous experts say it will be the largest natural disaster of … It will be centred roughly 60km west of Queenstown, in the South Westland area. 1 December 2020–A rupture along the full length of the fast-slipping Alpine Fault on New Zealand’s South Island poses the largest potential seismic threat to the southern and central parts of the country.But new evidence of a 19 th century earthquake indicates that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events. The Alpine Fault, which runs for about 600km up the spine of the South Island, is one of the world’s major geological features. An Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too. Areas such as Lakes Wakatipu, Wanaka, Hawea, Te Anau, Manapouri, Tekapo, Milford Sound Doubtful Sound are at risk from tsunami induced by massive landslips into the water. Our Knowledge of the Alpine Fault . View our live rainfall, river flow and ground water data. The length of the rupture will be … Cessation of most commercial activity may occur in many parts of the South Island, however, many local economies will be maintained solely by recovery activities. The 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, which ruptured parts of The Humps, the Hundalee, Hope, Jordan Thurst, Papatea, Kekerengu and Needles faults. There is extensive advice on how to be prepared on www.happens.nz and www.otagocdem.govt.nz. Earthquakes occur about every hundred years on average, along this section of the fault, with the last major earthquake occurring in … You can pick out the line of the Alpine Fault on this satellite image of the South Island. However, most of the motion on the fault is strike-slip (side to side), with the Tasman district and West Coast moving North and Canterbury and Otagomoving South. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following it. In areas where the magnitude is plus or minus 9, many tens of millions of cubic metres of rock and scree may collapse from slopes. The Alpine Fault connects two "subduction" margins where the ocean floor descends into the Earth's mantle. Agricultural production will be disrupted, and dairy herds may be unable to be milked in some areas due to electricity outage. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island (c. 480 km) and forms the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. It will be centred roughly 60km west of Queenstown, in the South Westland area. The council's emergency management team has been working with Selwyn communities to get ready. At 3 AM on May 29, 2013, the South Island’s technological uncon­scious roars […] In some places the force will result in a horizontal earth shift of up to 8 metres, and a vertical displacement of 4 metres. on Haast and spreading north to Ahaura. "By comparison, the Kaikōura Earthquake in 2016 ruptured a total fault length of 200km in the space of about two minutes," said Holden. www.youtube.com/channel/UC3nsXLqxO5OGcYCmEcS56sA. Large faults within the Earth's crust result from the action of plate tectonic forces, with the largest forming the boundaries between the plates, such as subduction zones or transform faults. 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